Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower
Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across
much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and
the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.
...Eastern States/Southeast...
An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near
an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas
Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling
supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with
additional storm development/intensification as the air mass
modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast
Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including
supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast
Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV,
in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary
layer.
Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm
potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the
Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013.
Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for
both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters.
Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large
hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes
regionally.
...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a
broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail
and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence
of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most
probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near
the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a
corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including
the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints
commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support
4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening.
Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will
probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North
Texas to the north of the surface front.
...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois...
A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern
Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great
Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall
buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front
approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence
of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms
capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the
mid/late afternoon through early evening.
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024
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