Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and
nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with
threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail.
...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central
Appalachians...
Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe
gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central
KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to
destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints
continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east
through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts
and embedded QLCS circulations.
In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient
has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more
diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe
thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across
southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by
50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures
should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a
risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong
tornadoes.
The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear
structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight
hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment.
The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of
northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated
guidance.
..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024
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