Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO
THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this
evening into early morning from central Texas to the Mid-South and
Mid-MS Valley.
...Central TX to the Mid-South...
Despite numerous supercells over the past few hours, reported hail
magnitudes have largely held from quarter to golf ball size thus
far. Recently, supercell numbers have subsided somewhat across north
TX into eastern OK, with the more intense ones in an arc across
northeast TX and northern MS, where baseball sized hail was reported
this hour. As such, have shifted the sig severe hail to account for
these recent trends.
The lack of appreciable low-level jet response tonight may curtail
greater organized upscale growth and tornado potential. Still, given
the large number of cells along with ample MLCAPE (as sampled by the
00Z SHV sounding), some clustering appears likely into tonight. This
should favor more of a mix of large hail and damaging winds.
...Mid-MS Valley...
Thunderstorms clusters near the cold front/large-scale outflow
intersection should evolve south-southeastward this evening along
the MLCAPE gradient that extends into the Mid-South. Sporadic strong
to localized severe gusts, along with occasional severe hail will
remain possible into the early morning.
..Grams.. 05/25/2024
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