Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE
TO WESTERN IA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A
swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely
across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated
intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight
across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes
and very large hail.
...Central to northern Great Plains...
Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported
hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far
southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are
expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears
probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The
current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte,
should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid
strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during
the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large
buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While
low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should
remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will
be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings
indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts
from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have
expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to
account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z.
...Southern Great Plains...
A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from
southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in
east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe
gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large
CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms
wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection
storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with
large hail as the primary threat.
...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas...
Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled
by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should
persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC.
Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the
primary threat.
..Grams.. 05/24/2024
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