Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening
across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern
Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes
and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue
south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a
threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two.
...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms
located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa,
western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are
located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the
mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE
along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated
70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This
feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60
knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this
evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained
for several more hours.
The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with
0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near
300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment
further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing.
This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and
isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential
for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will
be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin
into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will
be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to
80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments.
Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should
become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
...Ozarks/Southern Plains...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the
Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is
analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is
estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma
southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the
airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s
F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear
analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at
Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range.
This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with
supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is
expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated
toward midnight.
..Broyles.. 05/22/2024
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