Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of
the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential
appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas.
...TX...
Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across
the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending
southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to
the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon
heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE
values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly
strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the
setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of
very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities
in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale
after dark, building southeastward into central TX.
...OK into Western Great Lakes...
A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of
prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and
eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of
strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions
suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this
differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells
capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more
organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this
time.
..Hart/Barnes/Lyons.. 05/02/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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