Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OK AND
SOUTHERN KS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED AREA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX...SC/SOUTHERN NC...AND
CENTRAL FL...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains this
afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two. Scattered severe thunderstorms are
also possible through this afternoon over parts of the
central/northern Florida Peninsula, as well as the Carolinas.
...Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
Along and south of a slow moving front across southern NC, surface
heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F are
contributing to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and minimal convective
inhibition. Thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon
along/south of the front into the warm sector, in advance of
embedded perturbations rotating around the southeast periphery of a
midlevel trough approaching the southern Appalachians. Mostly
straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt will favor
a mix of organized clusters and/or supercells capable of producing
large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70
mph.
...Central FL today...
Convection is ongoing along and north of a diffuse outflow boundary
across central FL, as well as upstream over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. VWPs from TBW/MLB/JAX show largely unidirectional,
west-southwesterly wind profiles with straight hodographs, in an
environment with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Central FL will be along
the southern periphery of the southern Appalachians midlevel trough
with modest forcing for ascent near its peak this afternoon. It
appears the strongest storms, which will include a mix of
supercells/clusters, will tend to remain along the southern fringe
of the ongoing convection, with more uncertainty farther north based
on more extensive cloud cover. The strongest storms will be capable
of producing large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and 60-70 mph
outflow winds.
...Southern Plains this afternoon into tonight...
A shallow, moist boundary layer is returning to south TX, but areas
farther to the north will rely on residual low-level moisture and
evapotranspiration from moist soil and green vegetation to boost
boundary-layer dewpoints into the 50s/low 60s. Weak perturbations
will move eastward from northern NM and CO toward the TX
Panhandle/northwest OK/KS, along a weak front from central KS to the
TX Panhandle. Strong surface heating along and south of the front
will drive a deepening mixed layer, while there will be sufficient
moisture/steep midlevel lapse rates to support MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg. The moderate buoyancy and inverted-V profiles will favor
hybrid microbursts with severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph,
especially with any organized clusters/high-based supercells and
storm mergers. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter will be
possible with any persistent supercells or favorable storm mergers.
The tornado threat will be tempered by modest low-level moisture.
..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/15/2024
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