Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and
northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a
tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across
portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina
Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of
west Texas.
...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia...
A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast
Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a
localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur
along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during
the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also
reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization
(2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z
observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest
low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that
embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop,
accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional
short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780.
...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas...
Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering
surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal
heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s
F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid
60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon.
Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with
slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly
pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible
across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging
gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or
two could occur.
...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains...
The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal
heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A
deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon
peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms
capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and
mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also
accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level
moisture is slightly more favorable.
...West/northwest Texas...
A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a
diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where
the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the
initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level
moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low
50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms
that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat
elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant
mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail
risk.
...Northern New England...
An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of
stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally
severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern
New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine.
..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024
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