Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and
west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur.
...20Z Update...
Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West
Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development
further south with potential for hail and wind.
Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal
Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional
information.
..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/
...West TX/NM through tonight...
A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly
eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent
frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface
heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the
cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow
into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west
and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least
widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening
near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater
confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this
afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will
favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds.
Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower
farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained
(largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the
Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could
persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a
low-end hail threat.
Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast
Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and
weakening late this evening.
...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening...
A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over
eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak
destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become
sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon
from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this
afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface
temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE
up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few
organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main
threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail
approaching 1 inch in diameter.
...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening...
Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress
southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an
associated cold front approaches the international border. Though
low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the
front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak
surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late
afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in
midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/T6lh2w
