Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Northern Rockies...
Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the
Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest
moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered
thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally
focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon,
and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming
into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could
allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but
organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
...Coastal Southern California...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within
the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough,
where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to
-30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms
could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California
coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited
boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred
J/kg MUCAPE at most).
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/05/2024
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