Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with
the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few
tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas.
...20Z Update...
Little overall change was made to the existing outlook, as
potential, as well as uncertainty, remain over a large region.
An upper trough with cool temperatures aloft remains over the
Plains, with midlevel temperature gradient from IA into eastern OK
and southwestward across northern TX. Satellite imagery as well as
surface observations continue to show gradual heating and
destabilization as clouds thin from the decaying early day MCS.
Given substantial southwest flow aloft and at least a marginally
unstable air mass over most of the region, little change was made to
most of the outlook area. The greatest severe risk looks to be
centered over eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex and toward the Sabine
Valley late, in closer proximity to stronger instability.
Farther north across eastern OK into AR and southern MO, an
increasing low-level jet late this evening and right-entrance region
of the upper jet may yield a more concentrated corridor of strong to
perhaps severe storm potential after 00Z and into the night.
..Jewell.. 04/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
...East TX/LA/Southern AR...
A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight
has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX.
Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the
east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and
little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by
mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast
soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for
supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the
evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind
gusts and isolated tornadoes.
...OK/AR/MO...
The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across
much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud
cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of
the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to
this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late
afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at
this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK
seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and
a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread
eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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