Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK...
...SUMMARY...
Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or
two will be possible this evening across western Kansas. Large
hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible
tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma.
...Synopsis...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave
trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet
max moving into NM. This system will eject into the
central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple
clusters of severe thunderstorm activity.
...Western KS...
A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into
northwest KS. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across
western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south
of the front. Strong heating will likely ensue through the
afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline
and eventual isolated thunderstorm development. CAM solutions
differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears
likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the
dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes (possibly strong).
The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front
from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along
this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting
supercell structures. It is uncertain how far north these storms
can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk
(possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk
for some distance northward. This activity will likely spread into
south-central NE after dark.
...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height
falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX
Panhandles. Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion
along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated
convective initiation. Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all
severe hazards, including very large hail.
Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely
lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm. These storms will track
northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the
pre-dawn hours. Large hail will be likely with these storms, but
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more
organized linear MCS can evolve.
..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024
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