Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts
of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the
primary hazards.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains
through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave
impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon
into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee
troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border.
Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX
South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline
extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several
forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across
far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the
stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front,
becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK.
Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel
moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest
westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead
of an eastward-progressing cold front.
...OK - This Morning...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across
central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection
regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This
activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse
rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient
for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that
develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height
rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts
east.
...West TX toward SW OK - This evening...
Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However,
low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on
southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected
into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel
lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate
instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening,
convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to
increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting
east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles
become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear
profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter
and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop.
...Northern OK - Late Tonight...
As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front
overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be
possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK.
Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and
location of potential development, though the overall environment
(moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will
support hail.
...Northeast...
While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold
temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer
westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized
cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the
cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty
winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but
overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities.
..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024
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