Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe threat appears minimal with thunderstorms tonight.
...01z Update...
Very isolated thunderstorms continue this evening across the
southern Appalachian region into the Carolinas. This activity
developed in large part due to strong boundary-layer heating in
conjunction with frontal forcing and orographic influences. However,
nocturnal cooling and weak large-scale forcing favor gradual
weakening over the next few hours. While a few flashes of lightning
will be noted with the most robust updrafts, the probability of
severe appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk overnight.
Upstream, weak mid-level short-wave trough is advancing across far
west TX. This feature will encourage weak LLJ across the Edwards
Plateau later this evening, and a corridor of focused low-level warm
advection will become established from northwest TX into the Red
River region late. Elevated thunderstorms will develop along this
zone, and while hail can't be ruled out with the strongest storms,
the risk of hail, in excess of 1 inch, appears too low to warrant
severe probabilities.
..Darrow.. 04/20/2024
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