Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging gusts to 70 mph, large hail in excess of 2 inches in
diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected mainly this
afternoon into early tonight across the middle Mississippi and lower
Ohio Valleys. More isolated large hail and damaging winds will be
possible farther south from northern Mississippi and Arkansas into
central Texas.
...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys through tonight...
An occluded cyclone will move eastward into western ON, as part of a
deep mid-upper low over western ON/northern MN by the end of the
period. Farther to the south, a secondary cyclone will move across
MO to southeast Lower MI in association with an embedded jet on the
southern periphery of the deep midlevel low to the north, as a cold
front progresses southeastward across the mid MS Valley and the
southern Plains. Ahead of the secondary low and cold front, a
moistening warm sector will spread northeastward from MO to
southern/central IL and southwest IN (boundary-layer dewpoints well
into the 60s) beneath lingering midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km.
The net result will be an unstable warm sector with MLCAPE near 2000
J/kg and only weak convective inhibition.
The remnants of morning convection across MO could be rejuvenated by
midday-early afternoon, with an intensifying band of storms expected
to spread east-southeastward through the afternoon across the mid MS
Valley and into tonight across the lower OH Valley. The combination
of moderate-strong buoyancy and sufficient hodograph
length/low-level curvature will support a mix of embedded supercells
and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70
mph, large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of
tornadoes.
...AR/southeast OK/north and central TX this afternoon/evening...
Surface heating within an already moist air mass (68-72 F
boundary-layer dewpoints) will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of
2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by about 21z along
the front from northwest AR across southeast OK into north and
central TX. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some
supercell structures capable of producing isolated very large hail
(up to 2.5 inches in diameter), along with damaging outflow gusts
given the potential for strong downdrafts. These storms will last a
few hours into late evening and then weaken as convective inhibition
increases.
...Southeast AR into northern MS this afternoon/evening...
An embedded speed max noted over north TX in the subtropical stream
will progress eastward toward the MS River by late afternoon. Weak
ascent preceding the wave within an unstable warm sector, along with
surface heating in cloud breaks, could be sufficient for widely
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. If a few storms
do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable
of producing large hail/damaging winds.
..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/18/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/T5gfsV
