LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop late this afternoon in a narrow
corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and
vicinity. Damaging winds should be the main threat. Severe hail and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes also appear possible as this activity
spreads slowly southward into this evening.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Early morning surface observations show a dearth of low-level
moisture from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, with
surface dewpoints generally in the 30s. However, boundary-layer
moisture will gradually increase through the day across these
regions, as a weak surface low migrates eastward from the Great
Lakes across NY. By late afternoon, generally upper 40s to low 50s
surface dewpoints should become focused in a narrow corridor along
and south of front from OH into PA and southern NY. With upper
troughing persisting over eastern Canada and parts of the Northeast,
generally westerly mid-level winds across the Midwest/OH Valley will
aid in the eastward advection of an EML and associated steep
mid-level lapse rates. Even though low-level moisture is expected to
remain limited, these steepened lapse rates aloft, along with
diurnal heating, should encourage the development of weak to locally
moderate MLCAPE late this afternoon.
Surface-based thunderstorm initiation across this region will likely
be delayed until 20-21Z or later, as lingering MLCIN and a cap
gradually erodes. Initial development should be focused along the
front across parts of eastern OH into western/central PA, with
additional development eventually occurring into eastern PA and
parts of southern NY. Given strong deep-layer shear and favorable
lapse rates, large hail may occur with the more robust cores
initially. Some threat for a couple of tornadoes may also exist with
semi-discrete convection, as sufficient low-level shear will be
present for updraft rotation. But, with the surface front aligned
mostly parallel to the enhanced westerly low/mid-level flow, upscale
growth into small bowing clusters should quickly occur as convection
spreads south-southeastward. Scattered damaging winds will likely
become the main threat with these clusters through the early evening
in a narrow spatial corridor extending from eastern OH into PA where
instability and steep low/mid-level lapse rates should be maximized.
The damaging wind threat will gradually decrease through the evening
as instability lessens with southward/eastward extent.
..Gleason/Grams.. 04/14/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/T5V1B5
Windy.com Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK |
CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ... | RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN |
---|
MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
O'Hare International Airport KORD
(Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK
(Arlington Heights North)
Sunday, April 14, 2024
SPC Apr 14, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)