Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds,
and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River
Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight.
Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible
this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.
...Upper Ohio River Valley...
Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the
magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent
cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a
broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a
northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While
there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations,
will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km
southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface
cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the
currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively
highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio
River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity.
Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can
regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and
semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are
possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in
addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps
isolated marginally severe hail.
...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas...
A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across
the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with
low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this
afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest
destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would
conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts.
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a
threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible,
particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower
probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east
over the coastal plain/Delmarva.
...Florida...
A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this
afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead
of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints
around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak
mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is
supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles
will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and
locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks
through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization
expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early
evening.
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024
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