Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible through the
day across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.
...East TX/OK into the lower MS Valley...
Convection will likely be ongoing during the morning somewhere from
east TX into the ArkLaTex region, though uncertainty remains
regarding the evolution of this convection during the overnight
hours prior to the start of the forecast period. In general, one or
more clusters may develop and move southeastward through the
morning. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear could support some
storm organization, though instability may remain limited near the
lower MS Valley due to the influence of extensive convection on
Monday, and increasing overnight convection over the Gulf of Mexico.
Some threat for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail could accompany
the morning storms if organized convection can be sustained.
Most guidance suggests severe potential will wane across the region
in the wake of the morning convection. However, depending on the
strength and extent of convective outflow, moderate destabilization
may be possible during the afternoon from east TX/OK into portions
of AR/LA. While large-scale ascent will be weak in the wake of a
shortwave trough associated with the morning convection, isolated
redevelopment cannot be ruled out along any remnant outflow
boundary. Should this occur, MLCAPE potentially in excess of 1500
J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could be sufficient to support an
isolated hail and damaging wind threat with any sustained
afternoon/evening storms.
...Florida...
Most guidance suggests that an MCS will develop over the Gulf of
Mexico and move eastward through the day. Guidance also suggests
that the MCS (or its remnant) will not reach the FL Peninsula until
later in the evening, though there is some potential it will
progress eastward faster than expected. In advance of the MCS,
isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible over
the Peninsula as low-level moisture gradually increases. With
instability expected to remain rather weak, severe potential appears
relatively limited with both the MCS and any earlier convection.
However, with modestly favorable low-level and deep-layer shear
potentially overspreading parts of the Peninsula, the severe
potential will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks.
...OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes...
Scattered convection will be possible through the day from parts of
the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, in association with a cold
front. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear is expected to
be rather weak, since the region is located between a departing
northern-stream shortwave trough, and the southern-stream system
affecting the Gulf Coast states. Modest preconvective heating and
cool temperatures aloft could support gusty winds and small hail
with the strongest storms, though the organized severe-thunderstorm
threat appears limited.
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/05/2024
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