Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio
Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk.
...Ohio Valley...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over
IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by
12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle
Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted
across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will
translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short
wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH
Valley during peak heating.
Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest
from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is
driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As
the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of
convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will
evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep
midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for
afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves
due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests
the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south
of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak
after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest
convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air
mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that
evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared
environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail
would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater
forcing favors isolated storm coverage.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024
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