Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the
southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes are expected
to be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to shift across
northwest Mexico early in the period, then eject into the southern
High Plains during the afternoon. In response to this feature, lee
surface low will deepen over southeast CO before ejecting into
southwest KS during the evening. As should be expected, LLJ will
increase markedly across the southern/central Plains, which will
encourage boundary-layer moisture to advance north across OK into
KS. Early this morning, leading edge of 50F surface dewpoints are
located over southern OK. This air mass may spread as far north as
I-70 by 25/00z, with upper 40s dewpoints likely being drawn toward
the CO border, just north of the surface low. Strong boundary-layer
heating will be noted across the High Plains of west TX into extreme
southwest KS. As a result, convective temperatures will likely be
breached by 20z within the exit region of a midlevel jet, where
500mb temperatures are forecast to cool below -20C. Very steep lapse
rates and cold profiles will result in ample buoyancy for robust
updrafts.
Latest thinking is warm advection may generate some early-day
elevated convection east of the dryline, but this activity will
spread east and the focus for severe will be across the High Plains
during peak heating. Scattered supercells are expected to develop
immediately ahead of the surface low/dryline within a very
dynamically forced environment. While surface dew points may never
rise above the mid 50s downstream of this activity, surface-based
buoyancy is expected to develop by late evening as far east as the
I35 corridor as temperatures aloft cool. Large hail should be common
with supercells, and some tornado threat also exists given the
strong shear and surface-based nature of this activity. Convection
will spread/develop east during the overnight hours as the upper
trough progresses downstream.
Farther south across TX, convection may initially struggle to
develop along the dryline due to warmer midlevel temperatures and
some CINH. However, significant midlevel cooling will be noted after
25/00z and profiles should adjust and become favorable for
convective development. Latest model guidance, including the HREF,
suggest this activity may be more linear in nature, though strongly
sheared. Forward-propagating squall line may advance across TX and
southern OK during the overnight hours, with an attendant risk for
gusty winds, some hail and/or a brief tornado. The coverage of
severe may remain a bit too isolated to warrant a SLGT risk, but
this will be monitored and adjusted as conditions warrant.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/24/2024
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