Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with a wind-damage, hail and isolated
tornado threat, will be possible this evening across parts of the
Florida Keys. A marginal severe threat is also expected across parts
of south Florida and the central to eastern Gulf Coast.
...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...
An upper-level trough will move into the western Gulf of Mexico
today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will advect northward
into the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints are
expected to reach 60+ F just to the east of surface low tracking
through the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the low, convergence is
forecast to become maximized near a warm front located just offshore
to near the coast. Model forecasts suggest that a band of
thunderstorms will develop around midday along this zone of
low-level convergence. The moist airmass, along with moderate
deep-layer shear and strong low-level convergence, will likely
contribute to a marginal severe threat. Rotating storms that develop
and move onshore could be associated with wind damage, hail and a
marginal tornado threat.
...South Florida...
A mid-level jet will move across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico today, as an upper-level system approaches from the west. At
the surface, a low is forecast to develop and move toward the
southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A moist airmass, with
surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will advect northward
into far south Florida by early evening, where RAP forecast
soundings increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range.
Scattered thunderstorms, associated with lift ahead of the
approaching system and the stronger instability, are forecast to
move into the Florida Keys by early this evening. Convective
coverage will likely gradually increase as an MCS moves across the
southern Florida Peninsula. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida
Keys this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3
storm-relative helicity increasing to between 250 and 300 m2/s2.
This could support a tornado threat with rotating cells that move
across far south Florida ahead of the approaching MCS. Marginally
severe gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible, mainly in
the Florida Keys, where severe parameters are forecast to become
maximized.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/22/2024
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