Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE TX COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this
afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest
Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible early Thursday morning
near the Texas coast.
...Western OK/TX Panhandle this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough will begin to move eastward from AZ/NM
toward west TX by tonight, with associated downstream cyclogenesis
occurring today across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Low-level
moisture return will be limited in the warm sector, with
boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from 40-45 F as surface
temperatures warm into the 70s this afternoon along a surface
trough/front across western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle.
Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures
will support weak buoyancy, and weak ascent along the boundaries
could result in a few storms with the potential to produce
marginally severe hail and strong outflow gusts. There is also a
low probability of a non-mesocyclone tornado with developing
updrafts along the slow-moving front in northwest OK later this
afternoon, given steep low-level lapse rates/vertical vorticity
along the front.
...South central TX to the coastal plain late tonight...
Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest by tonight as a
maritime tropical air mass spreads northward from the Bay of
Campeche (along the prior stalled front) to the TX coast. Near the
end of the period, destabilization will become sufficient for
elevated thunderstorm development in the warm advection zone atop a
diffuse coastal front. MUCAPE could reach 1000-1500 J/kg as
moisture increase below midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, in an
environment with sufficiently long hodographs (and some low-level
curvature) for a conditional supercell/large hail threat mainly
09-12z.
...Southern New England this afternoon...
A deepening midlevel trough will move from ON to New England, as an
associated cold front moves across New England later today and
cyclogenesis occurs tonight near the ME coast. Moisture/buoyancy
will be scant at best ahead of the cold front across southern New
England, where some shallow/forced convection may occur along the
cold front this afternoon. The convection could be associated with
a few strong gusts, but the potential for convectively driven severe
gusts appears too low to warrant introduction of an outlook area.
..Thompson/Grams.. 03/20/2024
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