Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning.
...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the
afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal
thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL
Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak
instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit
the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and
gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater
pre-convective warming can occur through the day.
...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across
the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over
eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High
Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will
move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the
afternoon.
Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb),
and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands
of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This
frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning
flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by
strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions.
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024
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