Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND MUCH OF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and wind damage is possible this afternoon
across central Florida and along much of the Florida Atlantic coast.
...FL this afternoon...
A northern stream shortwave trough will dig from the mid MS Valley
this morning to the southern Appalachians this evening and off the
Atlantic coast by early Tuesday. An associated stalled surface
front across north FL this morning will begin to accelerate
southeastward across the peninsula this evening through early
Tuesday. The more pronounced midlevel height falls and forcing for
ascent will pass north of FL, leaving shallow ascent along the front
and/or differential heating boundaries (from convection moving
inland from the northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning) to focus
thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates and 50
kt midlevel flow with relatively straight hodographs could support a
supercell capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in
diameter) and damaging gusts near 60 mph. The severe threat will
peak by early-mid afternoon and then diminish into this evening.
...AZ/southern CA through this evening...
As part of a Rex block, a closed low over AZ will drift westward
today as an embedded speed max pivots from northern AZ toward
southern CA. Low-level moisture will remain modest, but cool
midlevel temperatures and daytime heating will contribute to at
least weak buoyancy (SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg). A few clusters of
storms will form in the main band of ascent over the rim this
afternoon, while other storms are expected to spread southwestward
off the higher terrain toward the southern CA coast. The threat for
severe storms will remain quite low, but the strongest storms could
produce gusty outflow winds and small hail.
..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2024
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