Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM
SOUTHERN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
...Gulf coast through this evening...
A Rex block will be maintained over the western CONUS, while a
northern stream shortwave trough digs south-southeastward over the
upper Midwest. A reinforcing cool surge will accompany the
amplifying northern stream, while a southern stream will persist
over the Gulf coast, east of the closed low over AZ.
A developing MCS near the northwest Gulf coast is expected to move
generally eastward today near the northern Gulf coast, roughly along
a quasi-stationary front across the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico.
As a result, much of the convection will remain a little offshore,
with inland threats for damaging wind/hail limited to the northern
comma head of the MCV, and more cellular (slightly elevated)
convection in the warm advection wing east of the MCV across
southern LA (near the north edge of the richer low-level moisture
and moderate buoyancy). The weakening MCS is expected to reach the
FL Panhandle late this afternoon and the isolated severe threat will
diminish by this evening.
Farther west, the potential for additional strong-severe storm
development is quite uncertain into TX. Forcing for ascent will be
nebulous at best in the wake of the MCV, and the remaining warm
sector will be displaced southward this evening into tonight by a
reinforcing cool surge. For these reasons, have opted to remove the
Marginal risk area from TX.
..Thompson/Dean.. 03/17/2024
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