Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south
central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night.
Damaging hail and wind may occur.
...South Central/Southeast Texas...
Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain
surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model
guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across
northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley.
Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may
prove robust with severe possible.
Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep
south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the
state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains,
large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable
surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak
short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period.
Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted
surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may
be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest
boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but
forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km
lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so,
boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE,
though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited.
Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country,
but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest
of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor,
much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate
across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours.
With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust
convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface
heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast
soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are
possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024
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