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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, March 14, 2024

SPC Mar 14, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z


Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes
are expected from parts of north-central Texas into the Midwest and
Mid-South. The greatest overall severe threat still appears to be
across eastern Oklahoma and far North Texas to the Ozarks.

...Missouri eastward into Kentucky/Indiana/Ohio...
A complex scenario is unfolding for today, given rather subtle
large-scale ascent across much of the area, but with a very
favorable background thermodynamic environment coupled with strong
deep-layer shear.

A line of strong/locally severe storms is ongoing this morning
across Indiana, which will continue eastward this afternoon into
Ohio. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk with
these storms, continuing across western Ohio before some weakening
eventually occurs given weakening instability with eastward extent
into the upper Ohio Valley.

In the wake of these storms, but ahead of a sagging cold front,
airmass recovery is underway. Clouds have cleared across Illinois
and for the most part Missouri as well, ahead of the front and in
the wake of earlier storms. Ongoing heating, beneath steep lapse
rates aloft, will result in a moderately unstable warm sector this
afternoon. CAMs continue to suggest redevelopment of more cellular
-- eventually clustered -- convection across this region this
afternoon, and eventually (presuming ample airmass recovery can
occur) into Indiana and possibly/eventually western Ohio. Though
low-level flow behind the initial band of Indiana storms will likely
remain somewhat veered, which may limit more substantial tornado
risk, very large hail is expected, along with damaging winds and a
couple of tornadoes. Storms could eventually grow upscale this
evening, spreading across the Tennessee Valley region accompanied by
continued severe risk.

...North Texas and the eastern half of Oklahoma to the Mid
Mississippi Valley area...
Storms have developed rapidly over the past hour across portions of
far northern Texas and into south-central Oklahoma near the slowly
advancing front/dryline, where heating beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates has resulted in development of 2000 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE. With 50 kt mid-level southwesterlies across the region,
deep-layer shear is supportive of updraft rotation, and thus
associated potential for very large hail, along with locally severe
wind gusts. Low-level southerlies are contributing to sufficient
shear for a couple of tornadoes late this morning/early this
afternoon. However, gradual veering, and some weakening, of the
low-level wind field is expected, which should temper tornado risk
to some degree. Still, a couple of tornadoes are expected with
stronger/sustained supercells.

With time, severe/supercell storms will spread eastward across the
Ozarks/Arklatex, likely clustering to some degree into this evening,
though with supercell structures persisting. Very large hail,
locally damaging wind gusts, and potential for a couple of tornadoes
will continue, eventually reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area.

A few CAMs continue to suggest potential for overnight development
of storms across portions of central Texas, potential slightly
elevated atop of a slightly stable boundary layer. Given sufficient
shear and the steep lapse-rate environment, conditional risk for
very large hail remains evident.

..Goss/Lyons.. 03/14/2024

SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)