Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK
TO SOUTHERN MO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large to very
large hail, and strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible
from parts of the south-central states into the Midwest. The most
likely corridor for severe to occur is from southeast Oklahoma into
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri during the afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
A cutoff mid/upper low will evolve from the Great Basin into
southern CA by early Friday, while a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
over the central Great Plains gradually shifts towards the southern
Great Lakes. Neutral to weak mid-level height rises should occur
between these two waves across the south-central states.
...Northeast TX/eastern OK to the Mid-South...
Despite the neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights, a difluent
upper flow regime coupled with robust boundary-layer heating
along/ahead of an initially slow-moving dryline/cold front should
foster scattered early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development
from the Ozarks across eastern OK. Given robust buoyancy and
moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely contain
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail.
Upscale growth into multiple linear clusters is expected in the late
afternoon to early evening as convection becomes increasingly
widespread. Still, semi-discrete convection should develop ahead of
this activity within a modest low-level warm-advection regime. While
low-level south-southwesterlies should not be uniform, and perhaps
not overly strong across the warm sector, they should also
strengthen somewhat into the early evening. This setup should foster
an uptick in tornado potential as convection spreads across
southeast OK to western/northern AR. In time, increasing alignment
of the deep-layer shear vector with the expected MCS orientation
should further yield a messy/complex convective mode evolution.
Embedded supercells and localized bows will support sporadic
occurrences for all hazards, although a general downward trend
should gradually occur overnight as convection outpaces the
surface-based instability plume in the TN Valley vicinity.
...Mid-MS Valley to OH...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface
low and warm front later this morning. General expectation is for
most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an
attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential
for the southern edge of these storms, along associated outflow, to
move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting
in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is
expected to continue eastward along the eastern periphery of the
instability plume and reach the Mid to Upper OH Valley by afternoon.
The presence of these early morning storms should modulate the
effective frontal zone for potential mid to late afternoon
redevelopment from the Mid-MS Valley towards parts of IN, as well as
the degree of destabilization across the region. This lowers
confidence in what otherwise appears to be a conditionally favorable
setup for supercell clusters. The northeast extension of a steep
mid-level lapse-rate plume, coupled with substantial deep-layer
shear and hodograph enlargement, will favor risks for a few
tornadoes and large to very large hail. For this cycle, have
expanded the cat 2-SLGT risk substantially eastward with increased
extent of the 5% tornado and sig severe hail areas.
..Grams/Thornton.. 03/14/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/T4303L
