Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms
may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential
appears low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will
become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada
digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over
the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support
ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity
early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure
will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by
midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly
low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in
boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area
through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal
forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR
into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward
northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight.
Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the
Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong
storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through
midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be
tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in
RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be
somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures
as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under
the influence of the advancing cold front during the
afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but
severe potential is expected to remain low.
..Leitman.. 02/22/2024
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