Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible
beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great
Plains.
...Southern Great Plains...
Late-evening satellite imagery suggests a strong southern-stream
short-wave trough is noted over southern CA/Baja Peninsula. This
feature is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance, and
should approach west TX by late afternoon. While the primary trough
will only advance into the TX south Plains by the end of the period,
deep-layer ascent and strong shear will overspread the southern
Plains as 12hr midlevel height falls, on the order of 90m, evolve
across this region.
Boundary-layer moistening has permitted 50s surface dew points to
return across much of TX east of a line from
Sanderson-SJT-ABI-Vernon, even advancing into portions of OK as of
05z. Lee surface trough/dryline will hold near this position as
modest boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High
Plains by mid afternoon. While lee cyclogenesis is not expected to
be that significant, low-level convergence will prove more than
adequate for deep convection by late afternoon as substantial
midlevel cooling will overspread the dryline. Latest data suggests
500mb temperatures should cool to near -18C by peak heating and
low-level lapse rates west of the boundary will be substantially
steep, enough for surface-based parcels to convect. NAM forecast
sounding at 21z for AMA exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg
within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts. HREF
supports the idea of forced convection evolving across this portion
of the High Plains with subsequent upscale growth/movement into
western OK by early evening. Scattered convection is also expected
south along/ahead of the dryline as profiles adjust within a very
diffluent high-level flow regime. Buoyancy will be greater at lower
latitudes, especially south of I20, and forecast soundings favor
potential supercells and large hail. While initial activity may be
somewhat discrete, this strongly dynamic system should encourage a
more linear mode of convection by mid evening. An elongated QLCS
will surge across the southern Plains during the overnight hours.
While hail is the primary severe threat early, especially near the
initiating corridor, locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief
tornado are the threats downstream.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2024
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