Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No appreciable severe threat is expected across the continental U.S.
today and tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough at mid-levels will move eastward from the Great
Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. Weak
low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough
from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist
corridor in the Ozarks around midday. Storm coverage will likely
expand as scattered convection moves eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Instability is forecast to
remain limited along and near the moist axis where surface dewpoints
should only be in the lower to mid 50s F. Due to very weak
instability, the stronger storms are expected to remain largely, if
not entirely sub-severe. The potential for thunderstorms will shift
eastward into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening.
Elsewhere across most of the continental U.S., conditions will be
dry and thunderstorms are not expected.
..Broyles/Moore.. 02/16/2024
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