Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning.
...Discussion...
A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build
east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians
through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold
front across central FL southward across the remainder of the
peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse
rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level
height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible.
On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the
western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous
shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee
cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm
potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest
TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced
low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated
convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to
12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb
speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX
Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line
owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface.
..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024
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