Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will
continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core
vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much
of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the
Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through
the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z,
the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA
southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be
over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the
Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL.
At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with
occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the
NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA,
northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By
00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold
front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front
should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter.
In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted
offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient
moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of
FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley
region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core
region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter
space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat.
..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024
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