Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area. Generally
disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon across parts of
TX/LA. With favorable deep-layer shear and increasing low-level
moisture, some uptick in storm organization/intensity remains
possible later this afternoon into this evening from east TX into
western LA, though generally weak instability is exepcted to keep
any severe threat isolated.
Later tonight, some guidance (including recent runs of the
HRRR/RRFS) develops vigorous convection across south TX, which then
evolves into an MCS near the middle TX coast. Should this occur,
some severe threat could develop during the overnight hours near the
TX coast and spread into southwest LA by early Wednesday morning.
Finally, a couple strong storms will be possible across parts of
west TX late this afternoon into the evening, in association with a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching from northern Mexico.
At this time, it appears that the severe threat will be limited by
weak instability, though gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible.
..Dean.. 01/23/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/
...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana...
Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the
low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and
amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface
dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas
into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas.
Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover
will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few
near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this
evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging
winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong
low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread
into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain
relatively low through the end of the period.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/T1n4xb
