Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
Notable southern-stream short-wave trough will advance across the
lower CO River Valley/Baja Peninsula early in the period before
progressing to near the Big Bend/lower Rio Grande Valley region by
22/12z. Dominant surface anticyclone will shift into the OH/TN
Valley early but remain influential into the southern Plains through
the period. Latest data suggests a surface boundary will sharpen off
the TX Coast in response to the approaching short wave. This will
allow modified Gulf air mass to advance north to near the middle TX
Coast, but will struggle to move inland given the low-latitude short
wave, and influence of aforementioned anticyclone. Current thinking
is strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated
convection as steepening lapse rates aloft will aid buoyancy for
thunderstorms. Models suggest 50-70kt LLJ will evolve across the
southern Plains and this will lead to convection atop cold/stable
boundary layer.
Farther west, a few thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon
north of the midlevel jet across southern AZ where 500mb
temperatures cool to near -20C. Isolated thunderstorms may also
develop along the CA Coast, primarily during the latter half of the
period in response to approaching short wave Sunday night.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/21/2024
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