Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm threat is negligible today.
...Discussion...
Intense 12hr midlevel height falls will spread across New England
over the next 30 hr in response to an upper trough that is expected
to advance across the Great Lakes toward Georgian Bay by the end of
the period. Strong low-level warm advection early in the period will
likely contribute to ascent necessary for elevated convection.
Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield
MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, more than adequate for lightning
discharge in the more robust updrafts.
Farther south, weak buoyancy lingers across south FL. Weak low-level
convergence along the front may prove adequate for instigating
surface-based updrafts capable of generating lightning. Primary
threat should be prior to 21z.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/13/2024
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