Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible
from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and
Ozarks.
...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks...
A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig
southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move
into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the
system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east
Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40
to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and
develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the
greatest potential for convective development should be from east
Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the
southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening
generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly
in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40
knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km,
may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could
be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves
into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM
solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective
coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail
conditional.
..Broyles.. 12/08/2023
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