Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across northern California.
...California...
An area of modest midlevel height falls will spread south along the
CA Coast and adjacent offshore areas as an upper low digs to near
36N/127W by the end of the period. While the primary surface front
should not advance inland, weak boundary-layer heating should
contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy across portions of
northern CA within favorable high-level diffluent flow aloft.
Forecast soundings exhibit SBCAPE around 200 J/kg by early afternoon
which may be adequate for lifted parcels to approach levels
necessary for lightning discharge. Later in the period, near-frontal
convection will approach the CA Coast, and this activity may also
pose some risk for lightning within the more robust updrafts,
although it too should remain rather isolated.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2023
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