Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the
CONUS, with multiple lower amplitude disturbances crossing the
Midwest/Southeast amidst phasing westerlies over the eastern third
of the CONUS. Cool/stable continental trajectories will largely
limit deep convective potential, with a potential exception being
the coastal Southeast states.
...Northwest/West-Central Florida Peninsula...
Owing to weak cyclogenesis from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across
the northern Florida Peninsula later today, a warm/moist sector will
expand eastward across much of the Peninsula. This will be as
hodographs lengthen owing to strengthening low/mid-level
southwesterly winds, particularly in the 1-3 km AGL layer. However,
questions still linger regarding the quality/depth of the
inland-progressing moist layer, as well as the likelihood of
lingering mid-level capping over the Peninsula. Current thinking is
that while some strong/rotating storms may occur off the
west/northwest coast of Florida, severe-storm potential should
remain limited over inland areas. Subsequent outlooks will continue
to reevaluate any potential need for low tornado and/or wind-related
severe probabilities.
..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/26/2023
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