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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, September 3, 2023

SPC Sep 3, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are possible across much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West this afternoon and evening, especially across parts of Nevada and Utah into southeast Idaho. ...Great Basin/Intermountain West... An upper trough centered over northern California early today will continue to spread east-northeastward over the Great Basin. Preceding the upper trough, 12z observed soundings from locations such as Elko NV, Boise ID, and Salt Lake City UT sampled a very moist air mass with Precipitable Water values generally ranging from 0.80-1.25 inches. Some stronger thunderstorms are already evident early today across western Nevada, and a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely regionally into the afternoon as the boundary layer heats, with plentiful cloud breaks noted across eastern Nevada into Utah this morning. Hail and strong/severe-caliber winds will be possible across a broad region, but the most organized and sustained storms, including some supercells, should occur across the eastern half of Nevada into western/north Utah and possibly southeast Idaho where effective shear should be around 35-45 kt. ...North Texas... Thunderstorms should increase this afternoon, at least in a widely scattered sense, on the immediate eastern periphery of an upper low centered across north Texas. Vertical shear will be weak, and overall buoyancy will be limited as compared to typical summertime standards. However, a pocket of cool mid-level temperatures (around -10C at 500 mb) could support some stronger (low-topped but high-based) storms as the boundary layer heats. A few storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 09/03/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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