LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GREAT BASIN REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and strong to
potentially severe winds will be possible across parts of the
Intermountain West Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Inter-Mountain West...
Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low along
the northern CA Coast. This feature is forecast to finally advance
inland later today as a 50+kt 500mb speed max rotates through the
base of the trough over southern CA by 04/00z. Left exit region of
this jet will influence large-scale ascent across the Great Basin as
mid-level temperatures cool in association with the progressive
trough.
Scattered convection developed across much of the Great Basin
Saturday and clouds/precipitation have limited significant
destabilization, especially across the northern Great Basin where
many surface temperatures are currently in the 60s and 70s. Latest
model guidance suggests temperatures will struggle to warm
appreciably more than these current readings, though temperatures
will likely rise into the 90s across the lower CO River Valley, just
south of the approaching jet. As a result, forecast soundings
exhibit substantial shear but only modest buoyancy/lapse rates.
While large-scale pattern favors organized rotating updrafts,
limited instability may ultimately lead to weak supercells capable
of generating gusty winds and mostly sub-severe hail. Will maintain
MRGL Risk for hail/wind across much of the Great Basin region
primarily due to weak lapse rates/buoyancy.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/03/2023
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