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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, September 3, 2023

SPC Sep 3, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and strong to potentially severe winds will be possible across parts of the Intermountain West Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Inter-Mountain West... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low along the northern CA Coast. This feature is forecast to finally advance inland later today as a 50+kt 500mb speed max rotates through the base of the trough over southern CA by 04/00z. Left exit region of this jet will influence large-scale ascent across the Great Basin as mid-level temperatures cool in association with the progressive trough. Scattered convection developed across much of the Great Basin Saturday and clouds/precipitation have limited significant destabilization, especially across the northern Great Basin where many surface temperatures are currently in the 60s and 70s. Latest model guidance suggests temperatures will struggle to warm appreciably more than these current readings, though temperatures will likely rise into the 90s across the lower CO River Valley, just south of the approaching jet. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial shear but only modest buoyancy/lapse rates. While large-scale pattern favors organized rotating updrafts, limited instability may ultimately lead to weak supercells capable of generating gusty winds and mostly sub-severe hail. Will maintain MRGL Risk for hail/wind across much of the Great Basin region primarily due to weak lapse rates/buoyancy. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/03/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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