LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 01 2023
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be noted from
the lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin. Gusty winds
are the primary risk with the strongest convection.
...Southwestern US/Great Basin...
Weak height falls will spread across CA into the western Great Basin
Friday as a pronounced upper low settles south along the northern CA
Coast. With a dominant anticyclone expected to hold across the
central High Plains, southerly flow should strengthen across the
southwestern US into the Great Basin. Within this flow, a weak
short-wave trough is forecast to advance across AZ with another
disturbance expected to approach southeastern ID/southwestern WY by
late afternoon. Each of these features will encourage deep
convection, as higher-PW air mass will advect north within
strengthening southerly flow regime.
Currently, a considerable amount of convection has developed over AZ
ahead of the approaching short wave. This activity should persist
through sunrise as it propagates downstream across northern AZ into
southern UT. Considerably more clouds and convection are expected
across much of the southwestern US into the Great Basin Friday,
which should result in somewhat weaker low-level lapse rates across
much of the region. Even so, diurnal heating will contribute to
destabilization, and renewed convective development is expected by
early/mid afternoon across much of the region. Forecast soundings
suggest gusty winds are possible with the strongest convection.
Given the strengthening southerly mid-level flow, some organization
is anticipated as surface-6km shear increases in excess of 40kt,
especially across much of eastern NV/UT region. A few supercells are
possible, otherwise some clustering is possible as convection
matures.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/01/2023
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