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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, September 1, 2023

SPC Sep 1, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 01 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be noted from the lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin. Gusty winds are the primary risk with the strongest convection. ...Southwestern US/Great Basin... Weak height falls will spread across CA into the western Great Basin Friday as a pronounced upper low settles south along the northern CA Coast. With a dominant anticyclone expected to hold across the central High Plains, southerly flow should strengthen across the southwestern US into the Great Basin. Within this flow, a weak short-wave trough is forecast to advance across AZ with another disturbance expected to approach southeastern ID/southwestern WY by late afternoon. Each of these features will encourage deep convection, as higher-PW air mass will advect north within strengthening southerly flow regime. Currently, a considerable amount of convection has developed over AZ ahead of the approaching short wave. This activity should persist through sunrise as it propagates downstream across northern AZ into southern UT. Considerably more clouds and convection are expected across much of the southwestern US into the Great Basin Friday, which should result in somewhat weaker low-level lapse rates across much of the region. Even so, diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization, and renewed convective development is expected by early/mid afternoon across much of the region. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds are possible with the strongest convection. Given the strengthening southerly mid-level flow, some organization is anticipated as surface-6km shear increases in excess of 40kt, especially across much of eastern NV/UT region. A few supercells are possible, otherwise some clustering is possible as convection matures. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/01/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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