Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, August 6, 2023

SPC Aug 6, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight from the Mid-Mississippi to Lower Ohio Valleys. Scattered damaging winds will also be possible, mainly this afternoon into early evening across parts of the Mid-South and Southeast. ...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys... Multiple eastward-moving/decaying MCVs are still evident across the region ahead of the primary synoptic cyclone across Iowa. Ahead of this cyclone, a moisture-rich warm sector will expand north-northeastward across downstate portions of Illinois/Indiana this afternoon into tonight in tandem with a warm front. An arc of initially semi-discrete thunderstorms are expected to develop within the somewhat narrow warm sector by mid/late-afternoon, initially across southeast Iowa/far eastern Missouri and west-central/southwest Illinois. Seasonally strong winds through a deep-layer will support supercellular development, with low-level shear/SRH expected to be maximized particularly across southern Illinois 1) in vicinity of the warm front and 2) toward/after sunset as winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL increase. A few tornadoes are possible regionally, including supercell-related potential for large hail mainly within the first couple of hours of deep convective development. Into late evening, upscale growth into one or two organized clusters is plausible, with the potential for an MCS to evolve along the northern extent of the surface-based instability plume. An elongated swath or two of damaging winds with embedded severe gusts, along with a couple brief tornadoes may be sustained into the early overnight into the Lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid-South/Southeast States... The boundary layer across the region continues to steadily warm/destabilize. A decaying MCS/MCV across Arkansas at midday appears to already being influencing subsequent thunderstorm development downstream across northern Mississippi, while additional storms continue near the southern Appalachians. 25-35 kt 700-mb westerlies across the Tennessee Valley should be adequate to support semi-organized multicell clusters amid an extensive plume of large buoyancy across the Deep South. Scattered damaging wind swaths from water-loaded downbursts will be possible through early evening. Later tonight, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection focused along residual outflow/effective baroclinic zone over the Mid-South could influence additional strong thunderstorm development. This activity could pose an isolated threat for severe hail initially before potentially clustering into a localized damaging wind threat overnight. ...Central/southern Rockies and Front Range... The presence of 50s F surface dew points will support potential for isolated but regenerative thunderstorms to develop along the Front Range during the late afternoon and evening. A rather confined corridor for weak buoyancy with MLCAPE of only 500-1000 J/kg should be maximized near the Front Range. Deep-layer wind profiles will be quite favorable for supercells and large hail potential given near-perfectly straight-line hodographs. Downstream of a minor shortwave trough over the interior Northwest, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated around the UT/WY/CO border area within a weak buoyancy plume. Adequate deep-layer shear will exist for a threat of marginally severe hail and wind centered on the late afternoon. ...Central/southern Appalachians to Lake Erie... Multiple MCVs are expected to aid scattered intensifying thunderstorm development downstream of these features this afternoon. Pockets of modestly stronger low to mid-level flow attendant to these MCVs may support sporadic localized damaging winds, and perhaps even some funnel/brief tornado potential in vicinity of Lake Erie near a weak surface low/warm front. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 08/06/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)