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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, August 6, 2023

SPC Aug 6, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... CORRECTED SIG HAIL AREA ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging gusts will be possible over much of the region, with damaging hail most likely from eastern Missouri into Illinois. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast from IA into IL through the period, with a belt of 50 kt midlevel winds extending from KS into the lower OH Valley. At the surface, low pressure will move from IA into IL, with a cold front extending southwestward across MO and into OK during the day. Preceding the main upper trough, a leading disturbance will move slowly from IN into OH, with a boundary near the OH Valley lifting north as a warm front into central IL by 00Z. South of these areas, a moist and unstable air mass will remain over much of the Southeast. ...AR eastward across the TN Valley... Models indicate that areas of storms may be ongoing over parts of AR this morning, with possible continuation and/or outflow pushing east into MS, TN, and AL during the afternoon. Along with this possible forcing mechanism, westerly winds aloft will also increase through the period. Strong heating will occur over the region ahead of this possible activity, and forecast soundings depict tall CAPE profiles with ML values over 3000 J/kg. Clusters of thunderstorms thus appear likely to redevelop during the afternoon, with locally damaging outflow winds possible. ...Eastern IA and MO into IL... Rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over central and eastern IA early in the day near the surface low. This will likely limit heating for much of this area. Farther south into MO and eventually into central IL, strengthening westerly winds associated with the upper trough will aid boundary-layer mixing with stronger heating occurring. A deep-layer theta-e plume will likely develop from MO into IL, with both wind and hail potential as storms develop after about 20Z close to the IA/MO/IL border. Additional activity is likely to develop along the cold front southward across the mid MS Valley, with expanding storm coverage into much of IL, southern IN and parts of KY during the evening. A few storms may produce damaging hail over 2.00" diameter. ..Jewell/Moore.. 08/06/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)