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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, August 26, 2023

SPC Aug 26, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally damaging winds may occur Saturday from southern Missouri and Arkansas across the Tennessee Valley and toward the Carolinas. ...Southern Plains to Carolinas... Upper anticyclone currently centered over the southern Plains is forecast to gradually weaken and shift west into the southern Rockies late in the period. This subtle shift will allow northwesterly flow to extend across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies as upper troughing settles into New England. Several weak disturbances are rotating around the upper ridge, across the central Rockies, before progressing downstream into the middle of the country. Clusters of deep convection are noted early this morning ahead of these features, and subsequent evolution through the early-day period will contribute to potentially robust development later in the day as diurnal heating is maximized. One notable complex of storms is currently propagating across southeast NE/KS. Remnants of this activity should spread across northern MO before gradually turning southeast early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will extend across the southern Plains into southern MO where surface-3km lapse rates will easily exceed 9 C/km. As temperatures warm into the 90s renewed thunderstorm development is likely within an otherwise weakly sheared, northwesterly flow regime. Forecast soundings exhibit seasonally high PW values with abundant SBCAPE. Current thinking is gusty winds may accompany the strongest convection. Scattered convection should easily develop downstream across the TN Valley into portions of the Carolinas where large-scale conditions should similarly support gusty winds with the more robust convection. ...Elsewhere... Cool midlevel temperatures will spread across the northeastern US later today as a pronounced upper tough shifts into this part of the continent. Isolated-scattered convection will likely evolve beneath this feature but forecast soundings are not particularly unstable. Small hail, and perhaps some gusty winds could be noted with a few storms but the severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities. Gusty winds may also accompany weak convection across parts of interior OR where steep lapse rates are expected. However, this activity will remain quite sparse and buoyancy should be a bit too weak to warrant a meaningful risk of 50kt wind gusts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 08/26/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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