LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur Saturday from southern
Missouri and Arkansas across the Tennessee Valley and toward the
Carolinas.
...Southern Plains to Carolinas...
Upper anticyclone currently centered over the southern Plains is
forecast to gradually weaken and shift west into the southern
Rockies late in the period. This subtle shift will allow
northwesterly flow to extend across most of the CONUS east of the
Rockies as upper troughing settles into New England.
Several weak disturbances are rotating around the upper ridge,
across the central Rockies, before progressing downstream into the
middle of the country. Clusters of deep convection are noted early
this morning ahead of these features, and subsequent evolution
through the early-day period will contribute to potentially robust
development later in the day as diurnal heating is maximized. One
notable complex of storms is currently propagating across southeast
NE/KS. Remnants of this activity should spread across northern MO
before gradually turning southeast early in the period. Latest model
guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will extend across
the southern Plains into southern MO where surface-3km lapse rates
will easily exceed 9 C/km. As temperatures warm into the 90s renewed
thunderstorm development is likely within an otherwise weakly
sheared, northwesterly flow regime. Forecast soundings exhibit
seasonally high PW values with abundant SBCAPE. Current thinking is
gusty winds may accompany the strongest convection. Scattered
convection should easily develop downstream across the TN Valley
into portions of the Carolinas where large-scale conditions should
similarly support gusty winds with the more robust convection.
...Elsewhere...
Cool midlevel temperatures will spread across the northeastern US
later today as a pronounced upper tough shifts into this part of the
continent. Isolated-scattered convection will likely evolve beneath
this feature but forecast soundings are not particularly unstable.
Small hail, and perhaps some gusty winds could be noted with a few
storms but the severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe
probabilities.
Gusty winds may also accompany weak convection across parts of
interior OR where steep lapse rates are expected. However, this
activity will remain quite sparse and buoyancy should be a bit too
weak to warrant a meaningful risk of 50kt wind gusts.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 08/26/2023
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