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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, July 13, 2023

SPC Jul 13, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER OH VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and portions of the southern/central Plains. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...NY into New England... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong upper shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario. A surface cold front currently extends across Lake Erie into western OH. This front will sweep eastward today into NY where thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and strong heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Activity is expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also possible. Storms should weaken around sunset as activity moves into a more stable environment over NH. ...KY/WV/OH... The aforementioned surface cold front will sag southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this region, where sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg will promote a few organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, but a weak cap and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline - spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Several model solutions also suggest that sufficient coverage of strong/severe storms may affect parts of southern MN and northwest IA to support an extension of the SLGT risk into those areas. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/13/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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