LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN
MISSOURI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of Missouri,
Illinois, and adjacent portions of the central Plains and Midwest on
Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats,
with some potential for significant (75+ mph) severe winds across
parts of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and vicinity.
...IA/MO/IL early today...
A mature, fast-moving bow echo complex is racing across western IA
this morning at 50-60 knots. This system has resulted in numerous
reports of wind damage across eastern NE, and is likely to maintain
organization for a few more hours as it tracks east-southeastward
across southern IA, northern MO, and into central IL. The bowing
complex should focus along and south of a surface boundary that
extends across this same region. CAM solutions differ on longevity
of the system, but the potential exists for a rather long-lived wind
damage event. Therefore have added a small ENH risk corridor for
this system.
...KS/MO/OK this evening...
The aforementioned severe MCS will lay down a boundary somewhere
across central MO into central KS. Strong heating and ample
moisture to the south of this boundary will yield MLCAPE values of
3000-4000 J/kg. Large scale forcing will be weak, but the potential
exists for widely scattered thunderstorms along the boundary.
Forecast soundings show sufficient winds aloft and steep lapse rates
to pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts with any storms
that can form. A few CAM solutions suggest activity will grow
upscale and track southeastward into northeast OK overnight.
...IN/OH into New England...
A surface quasistationary front currently extends from northern IN
into NY and New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly
clear skies along the boundary, which should allow for substantial
destabilization and scattered afternoon thunderstorm development.
This corridor lies along the southern fringe of stronger westerly
flow aloft, with 25-35 knots of deep-layer shear. This may be
sufficient for a few strong storms later today capable of
gusty/damaging winds.
..Hart/Leitman.. 07/12/2023
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