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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, July 11, 2023

SPC Jul 11, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday will be centered over portions of the northern and central Great Plains. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary risks. ...Northern/Central Great Plains... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is currently located over the northern inter-mountain region. This feature is forecast to suppress the height field over MT during the day before digging southeast into the western Dakotas during the overnight hours. Strong surface heating is forecast along the southern/western periphery of northern plains/upper MS Valley surface anticyclone. Latest model guidance suggests boundary-layer lapse rates will steepen markedly across eastern MT ahead of the short wave by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached as temperatures warm into the mid 80s. Strengthening mid-level westerly flow will encourage supercell development along an axis of instability that should extend across eastern MT into western NE. Very large hail may accompany the most robust convection as it propagates southeast during the latter half of the period. One or more MCSs could evolve ahead of the short wave despite the lack of a focused LLJ into this portion of the plains. Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms may also develop along a surface front draped across lower MI-northern IL-central IA as diurnal heating weakens inhibition within a modestly sheared environment. This activity will not be strongly forced but adequate instability should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating some hail/wind. ...East TX to Central Gulf Coast... Scattered convection is currently noted across central KS into western OK ahead of a weak short-wave trough that is digging southeast toward the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests sustained low-level warm advection ahead of this feature may lead to a larger complex of storms by daybreak. If so, remnants of this complex will propagate southeast and affect portions of northeast TX/southern AR/northern LA by late morning/early afternoon. Boundary-layer heating will contribute to buoyancy and a few strong/severe thunderstorms could develop ahead of this activity as it propagate southeast toward the lower MS Valley. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 07/11/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)