LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
The greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday will be centered over
portions of the northern and central Great Plains. Damaging winds
and large hail are the primary risks.
...Northern/Central Great Plains...
Notable mid-level short-wave trough is currently located over the
northern inter-mountain region. This feature is forecast to suppress
the height field over MT during the day before digging southeast
into the western Dakotas during the overnight hours. Strong surface
heating is forecast along the southern/western periphery of northern
plains/upper MS Valley surface anticyclone. Latest model guidance
suggests boundary-layer lapse rates will steepen markedly across
eastern MT ahead of the short wave by late afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached as
temperatures warm into the mid 80s. Strengthening mid-level westerly
flow will encourage supercell development along an axis of
instability that should extend across eastern MT into western NE.
Very large hail may accompany the most robust convection as it
propagates southeast during the latter half of the period. One or
more MCSs could evolve ahead of the short wave despite the lack of a
focused LLJ into this portion of the plains.
Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms may also develop along
a surface front draped across lower MI-northern IL-central IA as
diurnal heating weakens inhibition within a modestly sheared
environment. This activity will not be strongly forced but adequate
instability should contribute to robust updrafts capable of
generating some hail/wind.
...East TX to Central Gulf Coast...
Scattered convection is currently noted across central KS into
western OK ahead of a weak short-wave trough that is digging
southeast toward the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests
sustained low-level warm advection ahead of this feature may lead to
a larger complex of storms by daybreak. If so, remnants of this
complex will propagate southeast and affect portions of northeast
TX/southern AR/northern LA by late morning/early afternoon.
Boundary-layer heating will contribute to buoyancy and a few
strong/severe thunderstorms could develop ahead of this activity as
it propagate southeast toward the lower MS Valley.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 07/11/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/Ss0J8b
