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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, July 10, 2023

SPC Jul 10, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms and a couple of organizing storm clusters may pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the Upper Midwest into Great Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from the Black Hill region eastward across MN into Lake Superior. This front will strengthen today as it sags southward, providing a focus for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. One area of organized thunderstorms will extend from Upper MI westward into southern MN, where 40+ knots of westerly flow aloft and strong frontal convergence will aid development. Forecast soundings show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, suggesting a risk of both large hail and damaging winds with the strongest storms. This activity will spread southward across northern/central WI and into northern IA during the evening. Another area of development along the front will be over northern/central NE into northwest KS. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will be present in this area, along with more pronounced northwest deep layer flow. This will aid in the development of supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. It is unclear how far south/southeast this activity may persist overnight, but some overnight model solutions bring this activity into western/central OK after midnight with a continued marginal wind threat. ...West TX Vicinity... Morning satellite imagery shows considerable mid clouds present over the mountains of central NM. This moist layer will spread eastward today and aid in the development of scattered high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain by early afternoon - eventually spreading into the high Plains. This activity will move into west TX by early evening, where greater low-level moisture/instability will support more robust updrafts and an increasing risk of a few severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible. These storms may persist for a few hours and spread into southwest OK before weakening. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/10/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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