LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms and a couple of organizing storm
clusters may pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of
the Upper Midwest into Great Plains this afternoon into tonight.
...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from the
Black Hill region eastward across MN into Lake Superior. This front
will strengthen today as it sags southward, providing a focus for
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
One area of organized thunderstorms will extend from Upper MI
westward into southern MN, where 40+ knots of westerly flow aloft
and strong frontal convergence will aid development. Forecast
soundings show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE
values around 2000 J/kg, suggesting a risk of both large hail and
damaging winds with the strongest storms. This activity will spread
southward across northern/central WI and into northern IA during the
evening.
Another area of development along the front will be over
northern/central NE into northwest KS. Very steep mid-level lapse
rates will be present in this area, along with more pronounced
northwest deep layer flow. This will aid in the development of
supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through
the evening. It is unclear how far south/southeast this activity
may persist overnight, but some overnight model solutions bring this
activity into western/central OK after midnight with a continued
marginal wind threat.
...West TX Vicinity...
Morning satellite imagery shows considerable mid clouds present over
the mountains of central NM. This moist layer will spread eastward
today and aid in the development of scattered high-based
thunderstorms over the higher terrain by early afternoon -
eventually spreading into the high Plains. This activity will move
into west TX by early evening, where greater low-level
moisture/instability will support more robust updrafts and an
increasing risk of a few severe storms. Large hail and damaging
winds will be possible. These storms may persist for a few hours
and spread into southwest OK before weakening.
..Hart/Leitman.. 07/10/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SryJLG
