LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with
wind-damage and isolated large hail, will be possible today into
tonight across parts of the central High Plains. Severe storms with
wind-damage and hail potential, are also expected to develop in
parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
...Great Plains...
An upper-level trough will move across the Intermountain West today,
as a belt of stronger mid-level flow moves through the southern
Rockies and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will
move southward across Nebraska and Colorado. A pocket of moderate
instability is expected to be in place by afternoon ahead of the
front from central Nebraska southwestward into eastern Colorado,
where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1500 J/kg. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will take
place in the Palmer Divide of east-central Colorado. Storms will
form and move into the lower elevations during the afternoon. RAP
forecast soundings in the mid to late afternoon in eastern Colorado
have low-level lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 8 C/km range, with
0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This will support severe storm
development with a potential for wind damage. Hail will also be
likely with the stronger cells. A convective cluster, with embedded
strong to severe storms, is expected to organize during the late
afternoon. This cluster is expected to move eastward across far
eastern Colorado, reaching western Kansas and southern Nebraska by
early evening. Although a marginal tornado threat may develop, the
primary hazards should be wind damage and large hail.
Further southeast across Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast
Texas, convective development is expected to remain sparse due to an
upper-level ridge. In spite of this, an isolated severe storm or two
will be possible in the late afternoon, as low-level lapse rates
become steep. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary
threats.
...Southeast...
Northwest flow at mid-levels will be in place across the Southeast
today. A linear MCS, associated with a wind-damage threat, is
expected to be ongoing across the lower Mississippi Valley around
daybreak. This line of storms may remain intact, moving
southeastward into the central Gulf Coast states this morning. If
the MCS can remain sustained, it will stabilize some of the airmass.
However, moisture advection in the wake of the convective system,
should replenish instability across parts of the region by
afternoon. Low-level convergence is forecast to be come maximized
during the afternoon along the northern edge of the stronger
instability from far southern Arkansas southeastward into central
Mississippi. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer
shear is forecast throughout this zone, mainly due to directional
shear in the boundary layer and mid-level speed shear. The
thermodynamic and shear environment should support a severe threat.
Isolated supercells and scattered organized multicells will be
possible, with the primary threats being wind damage and large hail.
...Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northeast today,
as a surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms will
likely form along and ahead of a front moving eastward through the
central Appalachian foothills. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F
ahead of the front will contribute to an axis of moderate
instability that is expected to be in place by early afternoon from
eastern Virginia northward into New Jersey. This, combined with 0-6
km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, will likely support severe
storms. Multicell line segments that become organized could produce
wind damage and large hail. A line of strong to severe storms is
expected to move offshore during the late afternoon, reducing the
overall severe threat across the region.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 06/16/2023
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