Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, June 16, 2023

SPC Jun 16, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with wind-damage and isolated large hail, will be possible today into tonight across parts of the central High Plains. Severe storms with wind-damage and hail potential, are also expected to develop in parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Great Plains... An upper-level trough will move across the Intermountain West today, as a belt of stronger mid-level flow moves through the southern Rockies and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Nebraska and Colorado. A pocket of moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon ahead of the front from central Nebraska southwestward into eastern Colorado, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1500 J/kg. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will take place in the Palmer Divide of east-central Colorado. Storms will form and move into the lower elevations during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in the mid to late afternoon in eastern Colorado have low-level lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 8 C/km range, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This will support severe storm development with a potential for wind damage. Hail will also be likely with the stronger cells. A convective cluster, with embedded strong to severe storms, is expected to organize during the late afternoon. This cluster is expected to move eastward across far eastern Colorado, reaching western Kansas and southern Nebraska by early evening. Although a marginal tornado threat may develop, the primary hazards should be wind damage and large hail. Further southeast across Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas, convective development is expected to remain sparse due to an upper-level ridge. In spite of this, an isolated severe storm or two will be possible in the late afternoon, as low-level lapse rates become steep. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... Northwest flow at mid-levels will be in place across the Southeast today. A linear MCS, associated with a wind-damage threat, is expected to be ongoing across the lower Mississippi Valley around daybreak. This line of storms may remain intact, moving southeastward into the central Gulf Coast states this morning. If the MCS can remain sustained, it will stabilize some of the airmass. However, moisture advection in the wake of the convective system, should replenish instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Low-level convergence is forecast to be come maximized during the afternoon along the northern edge of the stronger instability from far southern Arkansas southeastward into central Mississippi. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast throughout this zone, mainly due to directional shear in the boundary layer and mid-level speed shear. The thermodynamic and shear environment should support a severe threat. Isolated supercells and scattered organized multicells will be possible, with the primary threats being wind damage and large hail. ...Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northeast today, as a surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms will likely form along and ahead of a front moving eastward through the central Appalachian foothills. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F ahead of the front will contribute to an axis of moderate instability that is expected to be in place by early afternoon from eastern Virginia northward into New Jersey. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, will likely support severe storms. Multicell line segments that become organized could produce wind damage and large hail. A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move offshore during the late afternoon, reducing the overall severe threat across the region. ..Broyles/Jirak.. 06/16/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)